The Rationality of Optimism

as the horizon darkens, hope grows ever more reasonable

Recently someone left a very nice comment on one of my articles expressing appreciation for the optimism therein. I wasn’t really trying to write an optimistic article, but I was nonetheless pleased that my message was received as such. Optimism being one of the six competencies in U.S. Army Master Resiliency Training (MRT), I wanted to take an opportunity to outline why I believe realistic optimism is critical to ultimate cognitive performance, but also explain its employment is inherently rational as a result.

Since I don’t delve into the deep sociopolitical issues facing freedom loving men and women the world over on this ‘stack, let me just say that humanity faces significant challenges in the near future. How are we to respond to these challenges? Many see our current situation staring into the abyss of an uncertain future fraught with danger and feel hopelessness. While this is understandable, it is also irrational to allow this feeling to take hold. The worse things get, the more that purposeful, effective action becomes necessary on the subjective journey to optimal well-being. There is little if any disagreement among cognitive science professionals that pessimism and our underlying negativity bias rob us of the energy we need most in the face of such challenges. It is also an undisputed fact that no one can predict the future with 100% accuracy. These premises taken together provide us with two critical insights.

1. Hope is an essential fuel for the engine that drives success against overwhelming odds.

2. There is always hope.

Giving in to the negativity bias and wallowing in pessimism is a luxury that none of us can afford if we want to secure the best possible future for ourselves and those we care about. As a situation becomes more dire, the truth of this becomes all the more certain. That said, the possibilities for what can be achieved are not endless. We do live in a finite world with constraints. It is important to ground optimism with this recognition lest experience prove you a fool and undermine your long term success. What is critical to recognize is that in complex human systems, we tend to drastically underestimate the scope and breadth of the unseen paths that may guide us towards more purposeful action. The vigilance required to keep our eyes on the horizon cannot be maintained wallowing in hopelessness. Black swans fly at the edge of that horizon, just out of sight. If you desire to encounter them and realize the possibilities they represent, you must be ready. You must have hope.